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Daniel Oliveira's avatar

Your 88.4 GW for Texas hides a wide split. At nine listed companies, only about a fifth of 18.5 GW is approved or outside ERCOT's Batch Zero study by their own account, and another 7.7 GW is conditional or still in process. Riot says its energized capacity isn't subject to the audit, while Hut 8's Q3 filings never mention ERCOT. Table here: https://equibles.com/research/texas-data-center-moratorium-which-stocks-are-exposed-and-how-much?utm_source=substack

Frontier Signal's avatar

41% of planned US capacity sitting under governors who campaigned on pauses — most of that is projects still needing a permit or a grid yes, not sites already pouring concrete.

Same China + 1 logic: keep America, add a next-deployment option with power, permission and a date you can trust. Watching January EOs and the 2027 sessions.

Note: https://frontiersignaltech.substack.com/p/us-1-plan-why-every-hyperscaler-now?utm_source=armaan_substack&utm_medium=substack_comment&utm_campaign=us_plus_1

Rolling Hills Research's avatar

The split between 158.6 GW in pause states and 56.7 GW already under construction is the nuance most "AI boom is over" takes missed. If these pauses stretch into 2027, where do you expect the displaced pipeline to go: friendlier states, behind-the-meter sites, or out of the U.S. entirely?

Keith Henson's avatar

Making intermittent renewable power into steady power is expensive, and there is no good long-term storage method. I have proposed using renewable energy to drive the making of syngas from waste or biomass. Called SolarSyngas, the chemistry is a variation on the way Victorians made municipal gas from coal. Per ton of carbon, it takes 4 MWh to vaporize the carbon in trash and make the superheated steam. That makes more than 10 MWh of syngas, which you can burn and get 6 MWh back. If anyone wants a 28 page writeup, hkeithhenson at gmail.